Markets
Focus: Global market activity and macroeconomic events
- Covers equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
- Explains how central bank policy, earnings, and geopolitical events move markets.
- Provides quick recaps and context so readers understand why market moves matter.
Recent Post
Turning the Machine Back On
If you sell volatility systematically, you’ve been asking yourself one question for about six weeks now: when do I turn it back on? A quick recap
RBC Thesis
For two years, every model of a Canadian bank has been a model of fear: tariff scenarios, the mortgage renewal wall, household leverage, a labour
A Ceasefire With an Expiry Date: Pricing a Scheduled Geopolitical Binary
The two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire announced April 8, 2026 converts an unscheduled geopolitical shock into a scheduled binary event. We assess that (1) event variance should
Gold Failed the War Test
If you designed a laboratory experiment to make gold go up, it would look like the last four weeks. The largest Middle East military campaign
Week Correlation Went to One
Ten days ago, I argued that the defining feature of this market was low correlation—a regime where structural shifts re-sort winners and losers stock by stock,
Marked to Model: Priced for Prefection
A mid-sized UK mortgage lender most people had never heard of collapsed this month, and somehow that was worth an 8–9% drawdown for Apollo and
The Infrastructure Trade
Energy, Chips, and the Rise of Physical AI Subject: Transition from Generative AI Hype to the Physical Build-Out Phase Sector: Technology Infrastructure / Energy / Robotics ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
The Structural Repricing of SaaS
The Structural Erosion of Software Moats via Agentic AI Subject: Repricing the Future of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Sector: Technology / SaaS / Professional Services Executive Summary For over
AI Gets Physical: Humanoid Robots and the Next Frontier of Productivity
Date: 20 January 2026 Source: Barclays Impact Series 14 Executive Overview Artificial Intelligence is transitioning from the digital lab into the physical world. While the first wave of AI
The Eccles Crisis & the Independence Premium
Executive Summary: Key Investment Points Situation Background: The Eccles Renovation Pretext The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Building renovation, initially estimated at $1.9 billion and
2026 Market Outlook: The Convergence of Policy and Productivity
The 2026 outlook is defined by a transition from a post-inflationary recovery to a productivity-led expansion. While the shadow of 2025’s trade policies remains, a
THE 2025 WAR FOR WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY
Comparative Analysis of Netflix Definitive Agreement vs. Paramount Hostile Counter-Bid Part 1: News and Corporate Events The landscape of global media reached a historic tipping
Investment Thesis: Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Recommendation: Overweight | Base Case Price Target (DCF): $481.64 | Implied Valuation Range: $354.60 – $653.80 1. Executive Summary Adobe is a deeply entrenched, high-quality
AI Spending, Economic Resilience, and the New Bubble Debate
The New Engine Behind Economic Resilience The U.S. economy’s surprising strength may owe less to consumer demand and more to artificial intelligence investment. Global AI
Are Stocks Getting Too Expensive Again? A Market Valuation Reality Check
The S&P 500 is up roughly 15% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq has surged 20%. As prices rise, so does confidence — and sometimes, overconfidence. Valuations
Google’s “Problem”
Why Google’s Position Remains Strong Despite New AI Browser Competition Antitrust Ruling Reaffirms Chrome’s Strategic Role In Google’s recent antitrust trial, one of the company’s
Will the AI Boom Create Value or Destroy Capital?
Will the AI Boom Create Value or Destroy Capital? The artificial intelligence boom is everywhere — from earnings calls to boardrooms, companies are racing to
The U.S. Dollar Index: Why It’s Weakening Despite a Strong Economy
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the dollar against a basket of major developed-market currencies — including the Euro, Japanese Yen, British
The Brutal Truth About Stock Market Returns
In this article I explore the difficulties in investing and why most public companies fail to succeed in public markets. Over the last 30 years,
How to Invest in Yourself in Your Teens and 20s: Insights from Leaders Who’ve Been There
When you’re in your teens and 20s, it can feel like life is moving fast and the pressure to “figure it all out” is overwhelming.
The Department of Justice push to Divest Google Chrome
The U.S. Department of Justice has demanded that Google divest its Chrome browser, a move that would strike at the heart of Google’s ecosystem strategy.
Why Amazon is not what people might think
A company that I believe is not fully understood is Amazon. Amazon has become one of the largest companies in the world and creating a